Home>>Top

The hottest trade war has little impact on China's

2022-08-18

Detail

The trade war has little impact on China's auto industry, but American cars may suffer losses due to rare earth tariffs. Cong: Gong Yu, Asia Pacific industry analyst at UBS group's research department, said that China's electric vehicle industry does not need to feel too much pressure on the Sino US trade war. Compared with tariffs on steel, aluminum and cars, China's restrictions on rare earth exports will make the United States feel more pressure

Gong Yu, Asia Pacific automotive industry analyst at UBS group research department, said that China's electric vehicle industry does not need to feel too much pressure on the Sino US trade war. Compared with tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, China's restrictions on the export of rare earths, otherwise they will not be accepted, will make the United States feel more pressure

In an interview, Gong Yu said that 90% of the rare earth supplied by China is used to manufacture permanent magnet synchronous motors used in general electric vehicles, but it is not applicable to three-phase asynchronous motors used by Tesla. Therefore, GM will suffer huge losses from the tariff sanctions imposed by the United States on China's rare earth imports. He also said that the biggest impact of the Sino US trade war on the electric vehicle industry lies in technology, not metal resources. For example, the United States may prevent chips and core control technology from flowing into China, but this obstacle can still be overcome, because China may spend more money to buy chips and technology from sources, or adopt larger integrated circuits for second-line electric vehicles. As for the core semiconductor technology required by electric vehicles, Chinese manufacturers rely more on IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor) modules than other equipment, and the performance of IGBT modules they can launch is lower than that of their foreign counterparts

UBS initially estimated that the life cycle cost of electric vehicles made in China will be the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles in 2026, while that of the United States will be until 2028. However, the breakeven point of electric vehicles made in China may be reached in 2022, four years earlier than the initial estimate, because the price of automotive batteries fell by 30% in 2017, rather than the previously expected 10%. UBS estimates that the battery price may fall another 20% - 25% in 2018

four advantages

Gong Fangxiong, managing director of JPMorgan Chase Asia Pacific, pointed out that according to UBS's research, there are four advantages in the development and growth of China's electric vehicle market

the first advantage is that among large-scale entities, China has the largest support for the development of electric vehicles and the highest subsidies for electric vehicle manufacturers

the second advantage is the willingness of Chinese consumers to buy electric vehicles. According to the latest UBS survey of 10000 consumers in China, South Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States, 58% of Chinese consumers are willing to consider buying electric vehicles, accounting for 55%, more than all other countries

the third advantage lies in a strong industrial chain. China currently has 50% of the global battery capacity, while South Korea has 20% and Japan 15%. China's strong battery supply chain has led to a rapid decline in the cost of electric vehicle batteries, which has greatly promoted the development of China's electric vehicle industry

the fourth advantage is the widespread popularity of battery charging stations for electric vehicles. According to statistics, by the end of 2016, China had a total of 140000 electric vehicle charging stations, compared with 110000 in Europe, 41000 in the United States and 19000 in Japan. The number of electric vehicle charging stations in China in 2016 surged by 180% over 2015, changing from 1 extensive plastic granulator to a combined and intelligent plastic granulator. At the current growth rate, China may already have 300000 charging stations. At present, 47% of the global electric vehicle supply is made and produced in China. In 2017, two of every 100 cars sold in China were electric vehicles. UBS estimates that this proportion will soar to 4% by 2018 and 15-16% by 2025. At the same time, statistics from the automotive industry show that Chinese automakers sold 28.8 million vehicles in 2017, of which only 1.2 million were sold overseas

: Lan Fang